Why IU’s 8.5 Win Total is a Steal

Vegas has IU football’s win total set at 8.5 this season. And honestly? That feels like stealing. I don’t know if the oddsmakers forgot how to count, or if they’re just assuming IU will revert back to its old ways.

Let’s take a look at how we make it to 9 wins:

• Old Dominion – Win. If we can’t handle ODU, cancel the program and start the world’s largest pickleball club in Bloomington.
  
  
• Kennesaw State – Win. One of the worst programs in college football. Easy W.
  
  
• Indiana State – Win. The Sycamores are basically a warmup scrimmage. That’s 3–0 before Big Ten play even starts.
  
  

BIG10 play:

• Illinois: Toss-Up. Bret Bielema might drag this one into a cornfield fistfight. Still, winnable.
  
  
• Iowa: Toss-Up. Feels like a 13–10 game where both fanbases beg for the clock to run out.
  
  
• Oregon: Loss. IU could win this one, but let’s count it as a loss for this exercise.
  
  
• Michigan State: Win. They’re still trying to remember who their coach is.
  
  
• UCLA: Win. Welcome to the Midwest in late October. These Cali boys going to be cold.
  
  
• Maryland: Win. Good team, but IU gets this one at home.
  
  
• Penn State:  Loss. No way around it, they are pretty good.
  
  
• Wisconsin:  Win. The Badgers are not what they used to be. They kind of suck.
  
  
• Purdue:  Win. Bucket game, at home, senior day. Always an easy W.
  
  

So conservatively? Nine wins. Realistically? Ten is on the table. The non-conference slate is a cupcake tower. The home schedule is favorable. And for the first time in forever, IU has a quarterback who at least gets mentioned in NFL Draft circles. He’s got plenty to prove, but the ceiling is real.

This bet basically comes down to Weeks 4 and 5 against Illinois and Iowa. Go 1–1 in that stretch, and you’re cruising toward cashing. Go 2–0? We’re cooking with chili in November.

The kicker: the over is sitting at +105 (DraftKings). A conservative nine wins makes this almost free money. When Vegas hands out value like this, you don’t ask questions, you just hammer it.

Bottom line: IU over 8.5 wins is my favorite future on the board.